The inclination to see past events as being more predictable than they actually were; also called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect.
Context[ edit ] A large body of evidence            has established that a defining characteristic of cognitive biases is that they manifest automatically and unconsciously over a wide range of human reasoning, so even those aware of the existence of the phenomenon are unable to detect, let alone mitigate, their manifestation via awareness only.
Real-world effects of cognitive bias[ edit ] There are few studies explicitly linking cognitive biases to real-world incidents with highly negative outcomes. One study  explicitly focused on cognitive bias as a potential contributor to a disaster-level event; this study examined the causes of the loss of several members of two expedition teams on Mount Everest on two consecutive days in This study concluded that several cognitive biases were 'in play' on the mountain, along with other human dynamics.
This was a case of highly trained, experienced people breaking their own rules, apparently under the influence of the overconfidence effectthe sunk cost fallacythe availability heuristicand perhaps other cognitive biases. Five people, including both expedition leaders, lost their lives despite explicit warnings in briefings prior to and during the ascent of Everest.
In addition to the leaders' mistakes, most team members, though they recognized their leader's faulty judgments, failed to insist on following through on the established ascent rules.
In a MarketBeat study,  German researchers examined the role that certain cognitive biases may have had in the global financial crisis beginning in Their conclusion was that the expertise level of stock analysts and traders made them highly resistant to signals that did not conform to their beliefs in the continuation of the status quo.
In the grip of strong confirmation bias reinforced by the overconfidence effect and the status quo biasthey apparently could not see the signals of financial collapse, even after they had become evident to non-experts.
Similarly, Kahnemana Nobel Laureate in Economics, reports  in a peer-reviewed study that highly experienced financial managers performed 'no better than chance', largely due to similar factors as reported in the study above, which he termed the "illusion of skill".
There are numerous investigations of incidents determining that human error was central to highly negative potential or actual real-world outcomes, in which manifestation of cognitive biases is a plausible component.
The ' Gimli Glider ' Incident,  in which a July 23, Air Canada flight from Montreal to Edmonton ran out of fuel 41, feet over Manitoba because of a measurement error on refueling, an outcome later determined to be the result of a series of unchecked assumptions made by ground personnel.
Without power to operate radio, radar or other navigation aids, and only manual operation of the aircraft's control surfaces, the flight crew managed to locate an abandoned Canadian Air Force landing strip near Gimli, Manitoba.
Without engine power, and with only manual wheel braking, the pilot put the aircraft down, complete with 61 passengers plus crew, and safely brought it to a stop. This outcome was the result of skill the pilot had glider experience and luck the co-pilot just happened to know about the airstrip ; no lives were lost, the damage to the aircraft was modest, and there were knowledgeable survivors to inform modifications to fueling procedures at all Canadian airports.
The Loss of the Mars Climate Orbiter which on September 23, "encountered Mars at an improperly low altitude" and was lost. NASA described the systemic cause of this mishap as an organizational failure, with the specific, proximate cause being unchecked assumptions across mission teams regarding the mix of metric and United States customary units used in different systems on the craft.
A host of cognitive biases can be imagined in this situation: The Sullivan Mine Incident  of May 18,in which two mining professionals and two paramedics at the closed Sullivan mine in British Columbia, Canada, all specifically trained in safety measures, lost their lives by failing to understand a life-threatening situation that in hindsight was obvious.
The first person to succumb failed to accurately discern an anoxic environment at the bottom of a sump within a sampling shed, accessed by a ladder. After the first fatality, three other co-workers, all trained in hazardous operational situations, one after the other lost their lives in exactly the same manner, each apparently discounting the evidence of the previous victims' fate.
The power of confirmation bias alone would be sufficient to explain why this happened, but other cognitive biases probably manifested as well. The London Ambulance Service Failures, in which several Computer Aided Dispatch CAD system failures resulted in out-of-specification service delays and reports of deaths attributed to these delays.
A system failure was particularly impactful, with service delays of up to 11 hours resulting in an estimated 30 unnecessary deaths in addition to hundreds of delayed medical procedures.Whether you want to teach in additional subject areas or gain new skills in areas such as technology or leadership, the MSEd Self-Designed specialization allows you to customize your online degree program with the courses that best prepare you to achieve your professional goals.
The purpose of this page is to provide resources in the rapidly growing area of computer-based statistical data analysis.
This site provides a web-enhanced course on various topics in statistical data analysis, including SPSS and SAS program listings and introductory routines.
Topics include questionnaire design and survey sampling, . Errors and biases that in estimating and forecasting.
At the time a decision to conduct a project must be made, project outcomes—including costs, time-to-complete, and project benefits—are all more or less uncertain.
By H. Kent Baker and Victor Ricciardi. Investor behaviour often deviates from logic and reason, and investors display many behaviour biases that influence their investment decision-making processes. A Path Toward Awareness and Action. There is a large and rich body of research on workplace diversity, investigating questions such as self and group identity and stigma, power relations between groups, social networks, conflict and problem solving, and the emotional toll of being from a marginalized group in a workplace designed for and .
In the Elephant’s Footprint, by Ṭhānissaro Bhikkhu. (ePublished March 14, ) Three Dhamma talks, given at Wat Palelai in Singapore, on the need to put the four noble truths ahead of the three characteristics when making merit, practicing concentration, and developing discernment.
Videos of these talks are available via the ashio-midori.com youtube channel.